The Grand Prix of Italy represents the midway point of the 2015 MXGP season and teams and manufacturers have been talking about options for next year for a few weeks already. Allowing for the annual strangeness in which the paddock begins to be preoccupied about a future championship term in the early stages of a season in which they are currently mired, then it is no surprise that planning for 2016 has begun. Why does this happen? Mainly through fear and opportunity. Regardless of the size of the sport there are vast amounts of cash, work, hours and various careers sunk into racing and the justification for most of this outlay often comes down to the return: results. This is something that a company like Monster Energy have been searching for since 2008. That year they joined MXGP (then MX1) for the first time as sponsors of the factory Yamaha team in what was a series branded by Red Bull. David Philippaerts duly delivered with Italy’s first crown of the century in the premier class. Since that term Monster have emerged to be the principal sponsor of the championship but both MX2 and MXGP categories have been ‘owned’ by Red Bull KTM.
By switching their investment within the paddock to Kawasaki across the board and being instrumental in getting Ryan Villopoto to MXGP they finally seemed to be in the strongest position for success but it did not come to pass. Monster is a high profile case but you can drift along to even the smallest technical partner of any team that could be supplying material and resources into MXGP and the accumulation of this expectation for a return means that athletes are key ingredients.
Manufacturers move for riders both to enhance their own potential for results (and thus marketability to increase or improve that budget to race) but also to stop a rival stealing a march. This is why KTM’s early confirmation of Jeffrey Herlings’ contract in 2014 for another two seasons was one of the more pivotal pieces of business that Racing Director Pit Beirer has made in recent years.
How does MXGP currently lie? Principal players and considered title challengers Tony Cairoli (KTM), Max Nagl (Husqvarna) and Gautier Paulin (Honda) are all fixed for 2016. That leaves only Clement Desalle as the first ‘draft pick’. The Belgian – who will travel to Italy this weekend to try and keep his 2015 championship bid alive as he stands on the edge of losing another good opportunity to injury – has two clear choices: stay with his Rockstar Suzuki works crew with whom he has been part of since 2010. Or accept the advances of Monster Energy Kawasaki Racing Team who are already looking beyond their experiment with Villopoto. Desalle, who does his own deals, could very well improve his asking price from Suzuki for another two year contract by dangling the Kawasaki option in front of them, but knows another shoulder problem and DNS in Italy would weaken that bargaining position. His innocuous crash in France almost two weeks ago could not have come at a worse time.
To consider the hypotheticals then. If Desalle stays with Suzuki then he is likely to form another Belgian double-act for Team Owner Sylvain Geboers with the industry and placidity of Kevin Strijbos meaning another shot for the veteran despite a trouble 2015 term so far with wrist and thumb problems. This leaves KRT with a hefty sponsor and little in the way of star power to appease them. Kawasaki will likely promote MX2 World Champion Jordi Tixier and could gamble on raw talent with the likes of Valentin Guillod (although the Swiss’ close relationship with former KRT coach Yves Demaria could be a stumbling block there) or decide for the often over-looked consistency and potential of a rider like Shaun Simpson; meetings have already occurred.
If Desalle does choose to go green and re-establish a working relationship with Team manager Francois LeMariey who he worked with at LS Honda back in 2009 then Kawasaki could breathe easier and Suzuki – one of the best and most professional outfits in the paddock – would find themselves without an A-list racer, a situation almost unheard for more than twenty years. Apart from KTM, Suzuki almost rival Yamaha for the most titles in the premier class since the start of the century with Mickael Pichon’s two crowns and Steve Ramon’s 2007 championship (Yamaha victorious in 2004, ’05, ’06 and 2008 and 2009).
The clearest option for the Lommel-based squad would be to move for Yamaha’s Jeremy Van Horebeek and keep that Belgian axis. JVH had a superlative season in 2014 with eleven consecutive podium finishes, a first MXGP win in the Czech Republic and was runner-up in the series. The jury is still sitting on whether the 25 year old over-performed last year. There is a feeling that Van Horebeek is still ‘work-in-progress’ but has undoubtedly been outshone by team-mate Romain Febvre in 2015, even before his foot injury at round four in Italy. Can the Belgian deal with the pressure of being a championship runner? Can he handle a competitive team-mate? If Suzuki find positive answers to these points of analysis then they will have their ‘Desalle replacement’ and Van Horebeek could move to his fourth factory team in as many years. That open seat next to Romain Febvre (who is expected to be confirmed as a Yamaha rider for the next two years in Maggiora) would be an ideal slot for Guillod.
One of MXGP’s strengths is the ‘feed’ of racers from MX2 due to the 23 year rule that compliment an older and more experience collective. It means that the group of riders that brands and teams might look towards for possible wins, podiums and strong championship presence is healthy. Names like Simpson, Bobryshev, Waters, Searle, Strijbos, Frossard. A variation on this is the vitality of youth and the likes of Christophe Charlier, Glenn Coldenhoff, Filip Bengtsson, Guillod, Watson could always burst through if a team wants to take that direction.
As for MX2 it is looking more likely that Jeffrey Herlings will stay put. The Dutchman could be throwing a curveball, diverting attention away from his move to MXGP by stating ‘the obvious’ – that it would weaken KTM’s razor sharp bids for both MXGP and MX2 titles by having him and Cairoli in the same class – but staying in MX2 smacks of common sense. And Jeff has always liked to rack-up those statistics and bonuses. There are two sides to the predicament but I would like to see ‘84’ bump up to a 350 or 450. It is already overdue although everybody can understand his desire for a third MX2 championship after what transpired in 2014 with his broken femur. Pauls Jonass has had a fine debut year so far as a works rider and it would ensure that the reigning champions on the 250s – since 2008 no less – would be strong favourites again. HRC have Tim Gajser tied up and Kawasaki should welcome back Dylan Ferrandis after the Frenchman has been talking of the AMA but MX2 loses Tixier and Guillod. Max Anstie is allegedly switching to his fifth brand in five years with a rumoured move to Husqvarna.
There could already be one or two announcements about 2016 here at Maggiora but with Germany ahead next weekend and Sweden in early July (normally a place where deals are confirmed or publicly declared) then MXGP for next year could be forming in a matter of weeks.
Photo by Ray Archer
