As I write this blog the MotoGP, Moto2 and Moto3 teams and riders are making their way down to Jerez for a crucial final pre-season test before the new campaign gets underway in Qatar on April 7th. Only when that red light goes out under the floodlights of Losail will we truly know what everybody has got but on the surface evidence of testing so far it seems Yamaha have some catching up to do if they want to give Jorge Lorenzo a realistic chance of chasing Honda and Dani Pedrosa from the get-go in the premier class.

Whilst Marc Marquez has been impressive, especially when dominating last week’s three-day factory Honda and Yamaha shakedown at the Circuit of the Americas, and Valentino Rossi looks like Valentino Rossi again I genuinely can’t see past Lorenzo or Pedrosa for the title, with the Honda man the current favourite for my money.

Stefan Bradl’s performance in Austin at a new track for everybody, lapping second quickest behind Marquez, was encouraging and will hopefully give him the confidence to fight with Cal Crutchlow and Alvaro Bautista for early podiums – especially in that Texan round given that the latter two, along with the rest of the grid, were not present. In his second season at the top level on machinery every bit as good as Bautista’s, if not better thanks to the Öhlins suspension, Bradl can have no excuses not to be challenging.

In Moto2 it could be even more of a closed shop with Pol Espargaro the standout act. Pol has had a fairly quiet pre-season so far but he was the only rider anywhere near Marquez last year and could consider himself unfortunate not to have been picked up by a factory MotoGP team, which would surely have been the case if only there was more of them! The addition of a minimum combined weight for rider and machine should even things out for the likes of Scott Redding but the biggest step forward will still have to come from the rider. A sneaky outside bet could be Takaaki Nakagami, who showed flashes of his potential last year, whilst Nico Terol has also been impressive in the last month or two after hitting form in the final few rounds of 2012 and he will be a consistent threat to Espargaro. [Look out for a special interview with Pol in the next OTOR…Ed]

In Moto3 the obvious choice would be Maverick Viñales, third in last year’s championship after his infamous walkout at Sepang, when he split with his team despite still having a shot at the title. Viñales quickly forged a reputation as MotoGP’s ‘next big thing’ thanks to a precocious rookie season in 2011 when he became the youngest rider to score back-to-back Grand Prix wins in the final round at Valencia, taking his total victories for the season to four. Despite another five wins last year that display of immaturity showed a key weakness and the jury is out on whether a move to the JHK Laglisse team as opposed to the more experienced and settled Team Aspar was the right one.

A safer bet for the minor category title might be Jorge Martinez Aspar’s other prospect Jonas Folger, arguably the signing of the season at the midway point of 2012. The decision to ditch Alberto Moncayo in favour of the unemployed German youngster at Indianapolis paid immediate dividends with a podium in that race and he followed up with a win in the next round and two more trophies before the season was out.

Along with Viñales the likes of Alex Rins and Luis Salom will guarantee a strong Spanish presence on the podium whilst Italian hopes rest with Romano Fenati, or ‘Fenomenati’ as he was prematurely nicknamed by his national press after an opening round win in Qatar last year.

Matt’s tips

MotoGP – 1: Pedrosa 2: Lorenzo 3: Marquez
Moto2 – 1: Espargaró 2: Terol 3: Redding
Moto3 – 1: Folger 2: Viñales 3: Rins